15-28 The Big Beautiful Bill is the Beginning Not the End
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Show 15-28 Summary: Not to sound too much like Nancy Pelosi but now that the One Big Beautiful Bill passed, we know what’s in it. It was making a lot of people lose their minds perhaps because they didn’t understand the bill and what could or could not be in it. It’s clear they didn’t read it and listened to the wrong analysts. Which is why it will make people like Elon Musk and his very public temper tantrum look very foolish.
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Air Dates: July 12th & 13th, 2025 | Guest: Jonathan Williams
This Week – The Big Beautiful Bill Passed — Now What?
Nancy Pelosi famously said about Obamacare that “We have to pass it to find out what’s in it.” And now that we have the final version of the Big Beautiful Bill, we do know what’s in it.
But leading up to its final passage, it made a lot of people lose their minds. Legislators should know better but a lot of grassroots did not understand what a reconciliation bill was and how limited they are — just to budget items that affect federal spending or revenue. Which is why it could never be “the one bill” to accomplish everything America First that everyone wanted. So why didn’t the people who ought to have known better say that? Rather than try to sabotage it?
Perhaps they had their own agenda. And, as typical, they wanted something other than what they were saying.
Elon Musk — The Spoiled Kid in the Grocery Store
By definition, a reconciliation is limited. Not only in terms of what can or can’t be in it but also what budgetary items it can cut. It doesn’t take much to understand that. So someone as smart as Elon had to know that. Which implies then that he wanted something else. And his public shrieking tantrum was calculated. He had to know they couldn’t make the massive cuts he said he wanted. So it’s clear he either didn’t read the bill or listened to the wrong analysts. Or made the calculated move to get attention, blame people, and offer the solution. A third party with the goal to selectively to pick off vulnerable Republicans to be the key swing votes in Congress.
But Elon Musk’s temper tantrum gambit will look pretty foolish when the Big Beautiful Bill succeeds. He’ll not only look like the spoiler but what he is. Spoiled.
How do we know? Hint: everyone was predicting the end of the economic world after Trump’s reciprocal tariffs. Now they’re admitting they were wrong.
The Big Beautiful Bill Reality
Now that the bill was passed and signed, the fury has died down—mostly—we welcome back Jonathan Williams, the president and chief economist at the American Legislative Exchange Council (ALEC) to get some truth and reality about what was in it. No. It wasn’t perfect. Yes we would have liked more spending cuts.
But while the shrieking and tantruming was happening the detractors missed a key part of the bill. It codified 28 of Trump’s exectutive orders. They’re no longer executive orders, easily undone by the next president with a pen. Now they are law. And, even better, for those demanding more cuts, once the bill was passed and signed, President Trump used his executive power to rescind (cut) spending on key points. Like stopping the green energy credits and Global Warming spending.
But. And here’s the biggest and most overlooked aspect of the Big Beautiful Bill. It doesn’t end here. It’s the beginning.
Did you feel the political ground under you shift? Because unlike so many other big gigantic bills, this was about cutting spending, cutting taxes, and cutting the size and scope of government. And some actual entitlement reforms. When is the last time that happened? Maybe in the 1990s with Newt Gingrich?
And this isn’t some deep red state doing it. This is Washington DC. And it’s just the beginning. There are already plans in the works for two more bills like it to make further cuts and to push more of the America First agenda.
And that’s why, with the Trump Train rolling, people like Elon Musk standing on the platform shrieking about what is not on the train will look pretty foolish as the train pulls away without them.
Rich States, Poor States. Poor Oregon.
We also talk with Jonathan about Oregon’s latest ranking in the 18th edition of Rich States, Poor States. Jonathan is one of its co-authors. For anyone who lives in Oregon, it will come as no surprise that we dropped one point from last year.
But Oregon made some recent economic bungles that have come to light? How bad would it have been for Oregon’s ranking if these had come to light before the latest edition had been released?
Related:
Show 15-23 with Jennifer Hamaker – Oregon’s Climate Protection Plan’s planned devastation to Oregon’s economy — conveniently phased in after the 2026 election
Show 15-25 with Ed Diehl Oregon’s HB2025, the ODOT tax bill, which would have been the biggest tax increase in Oregon’s history
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Show Notes: Research, Links Mentioned & Additional Info
- Jonathan is the president and chief economist organization at American Legislative Exchange Council. Find out more at ALEC.org.
- Encourage your representatives to join ALEC! There are state and city memberships. Help elected officials understand economic problems and the real solutions available to get out of them. Send them this link: https://alec.org/membership/.
- And you too can join as a private-sector member!
- Follow Jonathan on Twitter at @TaxEconomist.
- Head to Rich States, Poor States to see how your state is doing.
- See the list: Trump’s Big Beautiful Bill codifies 28 executive orders and actions
- Steve Moore: Trump just scored the biggest conservative victory in three decades (Fox News, July 10, 2025)
- “What isn’t well known is that this new law doesn’t just change tax policy. It includes dozens of other long-sought policy goals – what I call ‘hidden gems’.”
- Conservatives say Trump won their megabill votes by promising crackdown on renewable energy credits (Politico, July 3, 2025)
- “Hard-line House conservatives said President Donald Trump assured them his administration would take action to constrict wind or solar projects that qualify for Inflation Reduction Act tax credits — a pledge that ultimately persuaded them to back the party’s megabill.” → A promise kept with Trump’s rescission package.
- Johnson says megabill will be ‘jet fuel’ for economy; teases 2 future bills within next year (Fox News, July 6, 2025)
- Johnson said the BBB is just the first step in a three-tier strategy. Johnson expects a second reconciliation bill by fall and a third by spring before the end of the current Congress. “You’ll see more of us advancing these common-sense principles to deliver that American First agenda”
- Trump says U.S. struck trade deal with Vietnam that imposes 20% tariff on its imports (CNBC, July 2, 2025)
- U.S. Supreme Court Greenlights Trump’s Federal Government Purge (GWP, July 8, 2025)
- Supreme Court allows Trump to implement plans (Scotusblog, June 8, 2025)
- In an 8 to 1 ruling the U.S. Supreme Court has overturned Clinton-appointed judge’s ruling that temporarily stopped Trump to do mass layoffs. Now his administration can immediately move forward
Sorry Democrats. The BBB Does NOT End Social Security
- Social Security letter on taxes sends confusing message, some experts say (Washington Post, July 4, 2025)
- Megabill does not eliminate taxes on Social Security — But it does increase the standard deduction for seniors.
- Tax exemption for Social Security goes from 64 percent to 88 percent.
- Does the “big, beautiful bill” eliminate taxes on Social Security? (CBS News, July 8, 2025)
The One Big Beautiful Bill is the Start, Not the End
- Arrington sees another chance to notch conservative wins, spending cuts in second megabill (Politico, July 8, 2025)
- Ron Johnson believes he will get ‘second bite of the apple’ on Medicaid cuts (Politico, July 9, 2025)
- Senate Finance Chair endorses a second megabill this fall (Politico, July 8, 2025)
- Ag secretary says able-bodied Medicaid recipients should replace immigrant farm workforce (Politico, July 8, 2025)
Green Energy isn’t So Green Anymore
Funny how Global Warming believers suddenly change their beliefs when they aren’t paid to believe them any more.
- Politico Deeply Disappointed That Democrats Are ‘Retreating’ on Climate Change (GWP, July 7, 2025)
- Brussels proposes softened 90 percent 2040 climate target (Politico, July 2, 2025)
- Trump Signs Executive Order Targeting Solar, Wind Energy Tax Credits (Epoch Times, July 8, 2025)
- Trump Issues Order To End Green Energy Gravy Train (The Daily Caller News Foundation, July 8, 2025)
Oregon’s Economic Outlook Not Looking Good
- Intel begins massive layoffs (Tech Power, July 8, 2025)
- Intel plans ‘several months’ of job cuts (OregonLive, April 24, 2025)
- Intel begins layoffs (KOIN, July 7, 2025)
- Within Intel’s manufacturing division, known as Intel Foundry, the company plans to eliminate up to 20 percent of technician, engineer, and researcher positions in its Oregon facilities.
- New I-5 Bridge tolls may hit $20 (Taxpayer Assoc, July 9, 2025)
